Could 2027 Bring Sri Lanka's Hottest Year Ever?

COLOMBO (News 1st): As drought conditions continue to spread across much of Sri Lanka, a rapidly strengthening El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean is raising fresh concerns over what lies ahead for the country's weather, water resources and agriculture.

The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology show that temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean, the key region used to monitor El Niño conditions, had climbed to 2.37 degrees Celsius above average as of yesterday. That places the current event within less than 0.4 degrees Celsius of the powerful El Niño recorded in 2016, one of the strongest such events in recent history.

Scientists are now watching closely as forecasts indicate that Pacific Ocean temperatures could rise further to 3 degrees Celsius within the coming month. If that occurs, it would make this the strongest El Niño event recorded since 1900. Forecasts suggest the temperature anomaly could climb even further, reaching 3.6 degrees Celsius by November.

Adding another layer of uncertainty is the behaviour of the Indian Ocean. Earlier forecasts suggested that Indian Ocean temperatures would rise alongside the strengthening El Niño, helping support rainfall over parts of South Asia. However, observations over the past three weeks show a different trend, with temperatures gradually declining instead.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index, which helps determine rainfall patterns across the region, is currently easing within neutral territory. The latest reading stood at 0.17.

The development is significant because Sri Lanka's expectations for rainfall during November and December were based in part on forecasts indicating warmer Indian Ocean conditions.

While climate scientists continue to monitor global developments, the effects of dry weather are already being felt across Sri Lanka.

With the exception of the island's south-western region, nearly every part of the country is experiencing dry conditions. The Disaster Management Centre says 81,865 people from 25,628 families have been affected.

Authorities are currently supplying drinking water to 72,153 people from 23,048 families across 20 Divisional Secretariat divisions, highlighting the growing pressure on water resources.

The country's reservoirs are also under strain. Water levels in reservoirs managed by the Irrigation Department are currently around 35 percent, while the overall storage level of the Mahaweli reservoir system stands at approximately 55 percent.

The emerging challenge prompted President Anura Kumara Dissanayake to convene a special discussion on August 21 with officials attached to the agriculture and irrigation sectors.

During the discussion, the President focused on whether existing water resources could be managed to support cultivation activities and whether irrigation releases could begin by October.

Responding, Additional Director General of the Department of Agriculture G.G.V. Shyamali said farmers should not wait for irrigation releases and instead begin preparations using available rainfall.

She explained that the Department of Agriculture is recommending that cultivation be completed by October 15, noting that forecasts point to the possibility of significant rainfall around November.

According to Shyamali, if paddy cultivation is completed during October, crops would be about a month old when heavier rains arrive, helping them better withstand intense rainfall conditions.

She also revealed that agricultural authorities are encouraging farmers to cultivate more short-duration paddy varieties this season, citing concerns about possible water shortages during the 2027 Yala season.

Meanwhile, the Irrigation Department says the success of the upcoming Maha cultivation season will largely depend on how much rainfall the country receives during the months ahead.

Director of the Water Management Unit, H.M.P.S.D. Herath, said major reservoirs under the Irrigation Department currently hold approximately 35.8 percent of their storage capacity.

He noted that many of the 29 irrigation schemes supplied through the Mahaweli system currently have sufficient water to begin cultivation activities.

However, he stressed that the situation is different for other irrigation projects, where cultivation decisions will depend heavily on future rainfall.

According to Herath, rainfall is expected around mid-October and throughout November, allowing many irrigation schemes to commence operations by late October or early November. Nevertheless, he emphasized that all planning remains dependent on actual rainfall received in the coming months.

As questions continue to mount over what El Niño could mean for Sri Lanka, senior meteorologist Malith Fernando says it is important to understand that Sri Lanka does not independently monitor or forecast El Niño conditions.

Instead, the country relies on forecasts produced by a small number of international institutions while comparing them with Sri Lanka's historical weather records.

Fernando also pointed to another concern: the possibility of record-breaking global temperatures next year.

Sri Lanka's highest-ever recorded temperature remains 40.1 degrees Celsius, measured in Vavuniya on April 10, 1983. Yet recent temperatures in Pottuvil have reached 39.9 degrees Celsius, bringing the country within just 0.2 degrees of that long-standing national record.

With the Pacific Ocean warming rapidly, reservoir levels under pressure and thousands already affected by drought, climate experts warn that Sri Lanka could be entering a crucial period. Whether the country faces worsening dry conditions, heavier-than-expected rains or even record-breaking heat in the months ahead may depend on how one of the strongest El Niño events in modern history continues to unfold.