'If We Don’t Stand By Indian Ocean, Someone Else Will' - Retd. Rear Admiral Warns

COLOMBO (News 1st); Sri Lanka and other nations bordering the Indian Ocean must stand by the region themselves, or risk outside powers stepping in to shape its future, Rear Admiral (Retd.) Y. N. Jayarathna, former Chief Hydrographer, has warned, stressing that national interest must now guide decisive and proactive statecraft.

“If you don’t stand by for it, someone else will,” Jayarathna said, underscoring that the responsibility for the Indian Ocean ultimately belongs to the countries that lie within it.

He challenged prevailing threat perceptions by posing a series of questions: Is Iran a threat to India? Is Iran a threat to Sri Lanka? Is Iran a threat to Pakistan? He extended the same logic to the United States, asking whether the USA should be seen as a threat to India or Sri Lanka. He argued that when such a matrix is examined carefully, it points to a clear conclusion, that regional security cannot be outsourced.

According to Jayarathna, the Indian Ocean itself, and the nations that depend on it, must be the primary guardians of its stability. Allowing others to fill that role, he cautioned, would inevitably reshape the region’s strategic balance in ways that may not align with local interests.

He cited recent maritime developments to illustrate how interconnected and complex modern security challenges have become.

Referring to naval exercises conducted by the Iris Dana off Visakhapatnam in the Bay of Bengal, he noted that when the vessels moved southward, Sri Lanka’s Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) tools continued to detect and track them. He posed a critical question: did anyone consider that these vessels effectively became potential targets when war broke out on February 28?

Describing this as a matter of interpretation and interpolation of facts, figures, and ground realities, Jayarathna said the failure to meaningfully assess such developments reflects a breakdown in statecraft. “When you fail in that, it failed on our statecraft,” he said, emphasizing that maritime affairs can no longer be treated as stand-alone issues, detached from political and strategic decision-making.

He stressed that global and regional dynamics are now deeply interconnected. Warfare is evolving, political cultures are shifting, global players are changing, and influence in the international system is being redistributed. In this changing environment, Jayarathna asked what role Sri Lanka truly wants to play as an island state situated at the heart of the Indian Ocean.

“Are we politically ready to play that role? Are we ready to take that lead in political arenas?” he asked, leaving the questions deliberately unanswered. Instead, he urged policymakers and the public alike to engage in serious self-reflection.

Jayarathna said boldness and proactivity are no longer optional. Sri Lanka, he argued, must consciously shape itself to face future challenges rather than react to them. The key, he concluded, is placing national interest firmly at the forefront of decision-making.

“When you put your national interest in the front, it is very easy to make decisions,” he said, framing this approach as the most practical and necessary choice for Sri Lanka in a rapidly transforming Indian Ocean region.