15 Minutes Before Trump's Post, Markets Moved - and Millions Were Made

COLOMBO (News 1st); Sky News Economics and Data Editor Ed Conway has highlighted a striking market mystery surrounding a social media post by US President Donald Trump that appeared to signal a possible easing of the Iran war and sent shockwaves through global financial markets.

In a detailed on-air analysis, Conway said the focus in recent weeks had largely been on the economic implications of the Iran conflict, but attention has now turned to unusual trading activity linked to the timing of a post Trump published on his Truth Social platform.

The post, which emerged at 11:05 UK time, had an immediate and dramatic impact on markets, particularly crude oil prices.

Charts tracking West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the US benchmark, show a sharp decline in prices immediately after the Trump post was published. Traders rapidly sold oil, apparently reacting to the possibility that the conflict might be edging toward an end. The move stood out even amid recent volatile trading days.

However, Conway stressed that the real mystery lay not only in the price movements but in the trading volumes. Market data shows an enormous surge in activity at the moment of the Trump post, as traders rushed to act. What raised eyebrows, he said, was what happened 15 minutes earlier.

At around 10:50 UK time, trading volumes in the oil market spiked dramatically, registering the largest volume of the entire trading day, despite the market having been relatively quiet up to that point. The surge occurred before any public indication from Trump and before prices began moving sharply.

The pattern was not confined to a single market. Conway pointed to Brent crude, regarded as the international benchmark for oil prices, where a similar sequence unfolded. Once again, while activity surged following Trump’s post, a significant spike in trading volume was recorded around 15 minutes earlier.

Based on the scale of the trades and the implied notional value, Conway said the sums involved were extraordinary. He estimated that the oil trades alone could have been worth around USD 580 million, describing them as “life‑changing amounts of money.”

It remains unclear whether the trades were executed by a single individual or a group, but the financial impact was substantial.

The unusual timing was not limited to oil markets. Conway also highlighted activity in S&P 500 futures, which track the world’s largest equity market. After the Trump post, futures prices rose sharply as investors grew more optimistic, accompanied by a surge in trading volumes. Yet, once again, a large and unusual trade appeared roughly 15 minutes before the social media post was published.

The repeated pattern across multiple markets, oil and equities, has left analysts questioning whether those early trades were the result of sheer luck or whether someone had prior knowledge of what the former president was about to say.

“As I say, life-changing amounts of money,” Conway noted, adding that hundreds of millions of dollars may have been made in a narrow window before markets reacted publicly to Trump’s words.