The NATO Vilnius summit 2023

The 31 leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation met in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius today the 11th of July in a backdrop of radicalizing war, the prospect of new members and an urgent need to discuss defense investment. The military alliance seeks to reaffirm their committment to Ukraine's ongoing war; the alliance will deal with the impending decision to challenge any attack from Moscow since the Cold War in the 20th century. They also convened in Lithuania to address the appeals for membership from Sweden and Ukraine.  

Let's take a closer look at the agenda for the summit. 

NATO is Ukraine's most supportive partner in its bid to create a bulwark against Russian agression, therefore these summit meetings to table and discuss expansion of membership and defense spending are extremely timely given the volatile status quo of Europe today. 

Defense spending: A priority on the Vilnius agenda is discourse on defense spending and the arms budgets of the member states. Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg plans to create a long-term program of committment to aid for Ukraine over a multiple year period;  "We have already pledged 500 million euros for critical needs, including fuel, medical supplies, de-mining equipment and pontoon bridges. We will also help build Ukraine’s security and defence sector, including with military hospitals. And we will help Ukraine transition from Soviet-era to NATO equipment and standards," said Stoltenberg. When The Kremlin made the decision to annex Crimea in March 2014, NATO allies agreed to end their military spending cuts and gradually increase their defense budgets to 2% of their GDP by 2024. At the Vilnius summit the NATO allies will recommit to this percentage. However modern economic recessions and fiscal fluctuations impede this committment. For example Turkey with  the largest armed forces in the organization are committing a mere 1.31% of their GDP in 2023 compared to 1.91% before the war started, perhaps a reflection of economic fluctuations. NATO'S heightened attention to defense and deterrence against Russian belligerence also includes regional defense strategies in place and 300,000 troops on high readiness. In addition to discussing military spending, Stoltenberg recently reveal a plan to create a NATO-Ukraine council, which would act in a consultative capacity between NATO members and Kyiv. 

Expanding membership. With Turkey's deeply held reservations against Swedish membership of NATO dissolving, Turkish President Erdogan has given the green light for Sweden to be admitted as a member. Both Sweden and Finland pushed their bid for NATO membership just after the invasion. Their membership essentially turns the Baltic Sea into a NATO-dominated waterway, one that enhances NATO’s ability to protect its most vulnerable members: the Baltic nations. That includes the site of the summit, Lithuania, which borders both Russia and Belarus.

Now that the contestation over Swedish membership has been resolved, NATO members now grapple with the internal divisions of admitting Ukraine into the alliance. Over the past few years, Ukraine has pressed their bid for NATO membership but never as strongly as in the post-invasion period. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (who was invited to attend the Vilnius Summit) has in the recent past made his request to join NATO upon the end of the war, very clear. Formidable NATO allies like the USA, Germany and the Netherlands do not back this bid for Ukrainian membership subsequent to the end of the war, seeing that it would indelibly antagonize Russia further. Western allies (not all) doubt that Ukraine is politically and economically equipped to become a member of NATO and insist that  Ukraine must undertake other reforms of its political, financial and judicial systems to qualify for membership. Nevertheless, Ukraine and the Central European allies, especially those bordering Russia, say they want Ukraine to be promised immediate membership once the fighting stops. 

The Vilnius summit is scheduled to be held from the 11th to the 12th of July 2023.